‘External forces’ behind Indonesian minister’s shock resignation as Golkar Party chairman, threatening democracy: Analysts

JAKARTA: The shock resignation of Indonesian minister Airlangga Hartarto as chairman of Indonesia’s oldest political party looks set to benefit President Joko Widodo as well as president-elect Prabowo Subianto, but has dealt a blow to the country’s hard-won democracy, analysts say.
Mr Airlangga announced his resignation as Golkar chairman on Sunday (Aug 11), cutting short a term that would have lasted until December. He had been Golkar chairman since 2017, and remains Indonesia’s coordinating minister for economic affairs.
While Mr Airlangga, 61, said he was resigning “to maintain the integrity of the Golkar party, in order to ensure the stability of the government transition that will occur in the near future”, observers say he is widely believed to have bowed to pressure from “external forces”.
Golkar, Indonesia’s second-largest political party, was formed in 1971 and was the ruling party for almost three decades until former president Suharto was toppled in 1998, paving the way for political reforms in Indonesia.
Since then, it has managed to align itself with the parties in power in Indonesia. Its leadership typically changes when the government changes, noted Mr Aditya Perdana, a political lecturer with the University of Indonesia.
This time, however, “nobody thought it would be this quick,” said Mr Aditya, referring to Mr Airlangga resigning before Mr Prabowo takes over the presidency from Mr Widodo on Oct 20.
“So it could be that … two powerful people wanted it to happen soon.”
Asked who the two people were, Mr Aditya said: “Jokowi and Prabowo, of course. Because we are talking about the transition period, and the outgoing and incoming presidents have power.
“So they need a firm Golkar, a figure who can support them in the next five years, especially Mr Prabowo.”   
Two Golkar politicians close to Mr Widodo, or Jokowi as he is popularly known, were named as potential party chairman after Mr Airlangga stepped down: Mr Bahlil Lahadalia, who is also Indonesia’s investment minister, and Mr Agus Gumiwang Kartasasmita, who is also Indonesia’s industry minister.
Mr Agus was named interim chairman on Tuesday, and Mr Bahlil is seen as the frontrunner to be elected chairman at the party’s national meeting next Tuesday (Aug 20).
A Golkar that strongly supports Mr Prabowo’s ruling coalition will make governance easier for him, as Mr Prabowo would have the firm backing of the country’s second- and third-largest parties. Mr Prabowo leads Gerindra, which won the third-most number of votes in February’s legislative elections.
The largest party, former president Megawati Soekarnoputri’s Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P), has not indicated if it will join the ruling coalition or serve as the opposition.
As for Mr Widodo, it was widely reported earlier this year that joining Golkar could be a way for him to maintain political influence post-presidency, as his ties with the PDI-P have soured and he is no longer with the party.
If Mr Bahlil becomes party chairman, Mr Widodo will have the opportunity to head Golkar’s advisory board, according to investigative news outlet Tempo.
Given that Golkar, under Mr Airlangga, was part of the Advanced Indonesia Coalition (KIM coalition) along with Gerindra, the Democratic Party, and the National Mandate Party (PAN) that successfully backed Mr Prabowo during the February presidential election, why did he need to resign?
Analysts point to events leading up to the country’s regional elections on Nov 27 to pick local leaders such as governors, deputy governors, and regents in all 38 provinces of the republic. 
Political parties must submit their nominees to the respective election commission from Aug 27 to 29 to contest in the local elections.
With just two weeks to go, discussions are intensifying and parties are particularly invested in nominating candidates for the governorship of capital Jakarta as well as neighbouring West Java province which, with 50 million people, is the most populous province in the country. 
Mr Aditya believes Mr Airlangga’s resignation may have something to do with his comments about the local elections. 
“They are now after the local elections, so the already-formed KIM coalition can be part of the local government. 
“If you observe carefully, Golkar is manoeuvring with the local elections… And I’m not sure the two powerful people are happy with this,” said Mr Aditya, referring to Mr Widodo and Mr Prabowo.
In the past few months, many have wondered where popular former West Java governor and Golkar member Ridwan Kamil will contest, after billboards of him with the tagline “on the way Jakarta” adorned some parts of the capital. 
Although Mr Ridwan is popular in West Java, many polls have shown he is less so in the capital, where former Jakarta governor and presidential candidate Anies Baswedan has shown interest in running again. 
Meanwhile, speculation has also mounted on whether Mr Widodo’s second son, 29-year-old Kaesang Pangarep, will run and where. 
Local media speculated that Mr Kaesang, chairman of the Indonesian Solidarity Party (PSI), may be eyeing the Jakarta governorship, which is seen as a stepping stone to the presidency, as demonstrated by Mr Widodo.
But opinion surveys have shown Mr Kaesang may not win. 
He could, however, stand a chance to run as deputy governor. 
Earlier this month, however, Mr Airlangga said Mr Ridwan would run in Jakarta. A few days later, he said Mr Ridwan’s deputy would be a person whose initial is S.
This diminished Mr Kaesang’s chance to run in Jakarta, as his party PSI does not have enough seats in Jakarta’s parliament to nominate a candidate alone. 
A day before Mr Airlangga’s resignation, the Attorney General’s Office (AGO) summoned him for questioning on Tuesday (Aug 13). 
Last year, Mr Airlangga had been questioned as a witness in the AGO’s corruption investigation on export permits secured for crude palm oil (CPO) and its derivatives in 2021 and 2022, when Indonesia was experiencing a shortage of cooking oil and shipments were restricted. Tempo reported on Monday that Mr Airlangga resigned for alleged links to the case.
Analysts say he was possibly held “hostage” with the threat of further legal action if he did not step down.
“The characteristic of removing a leader in Indonesia is by giving pressure related to law affairs – law as a political weapon,” said Mr Nicky Fahrizal, a Jakarta-based political analyst with the think tank Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).
“This (appears to be) a political hostage situation and is not good for democracy,” added Mr Aditya. 
“This is transactional politics. There is bargaining here.”
The man expected to be Golkar’s next chairman, investment minister Bahlil, was a businessman before he joined the Cabinet during Jokowi’s second term.
He was previously the chairman of the Indonesian Young Entrepreneurs Association (HIPMI) and a member of the Muslim Students’ Association (HMI) in Papua during his university years. 
Analysts say the 48-year-old appears to fit the criteria desired by Golkar and Mr Widodo. He communicates well, is able to execute ideas and, importantly, can accommodate the multiple interests within Golkar and the government, they say.
Mr Aditya noted that Mr Bahlil liaised well with seniors at HIPMI and HMI previously, and is also “close to Jokowi and Prabowo”. 
As for Mr Airlangga, some analysts believe the resignation may not spell the end of his political career.
His father Hartarto Sastrosoenarto was a minister during Suharto’s regime and, before becoming coordinating minister during Jokowi’s second term from 2019, he was industry minister for three years.
Before entering politics, he was a commissioner at various companies.
In the lead-up to February’s presidential election, Mr Airlangga had been touted as a potential Golkar candidate but had a low popularity rating at below 10 per cent.
Some believe he stood a chance to be a vice-presidential candidate, but this was snuffed out once Golkar backed Mr Prabowo and his running mate Gibran Rakabuming Raka, who is Mr Widodo’s older son.
Political analyst Ujang Komarudin of Al Azhar University said the latest setback may not be fatal to Mr Airlangga’s political career.
“Politics is falling multiple times, but rising multiple times. You don’t die just once in politics. 
“So if there is a new regime or power, you can reincarnate. It all depends,” he said. 
Whether he will be part of Mr Prabowo’s Cabinet remains to be seen, Mr Ujang added. “I suspect not, but we’ll see.”
The shockwaves from Mr Airlangga’s resignation have rippled to the PDI-P and could up the stakes in November’s local elections.
Officials from Gerindra have told local media the KIM coalition may become KIM “Plus” as more parties have indicated interest in joining. There is talk that the smaller parliamentary parties – the National Awakening Party (PKB), National Democratic Party (Nasdem), and Prosperous Justice Party (PKS) – want to join forces with KIM in the upcoming local elections. 
On Thursday (Aug 15), Nasdem officially joined KIM after its chairman Surya Paloh met with Mr Prabowo at the latter’s residence in Jakarta.
Despite beating Golkar and Gerindra in February’s legislative elections, “it seems (PDI-P) is now alone. Left behind by the other parties”, said Mr Ujang. 
On Wednesday (Aug 14), PDI-P chairwoman Megawati echoed the same sentiments. 
“It’s amusing to observe the situation leading to these local elections … I often think, ‘Poor PDI-P, it’s being outmanoeuvred and left alone,” said Ms Megawati at the party’s headquarters in Jakarta when announcing its 13 gubernatorial candidates.
The 77-year-old, who is Indonesia’s fifth president, said she wanted to step down as party head and spend time with her great-grandchildren, but learned of “someone” who wants to take over her party.
She did not reveal who the individual was, but media outlets like The Jakarta Post have reported speculation that it is Mr Widodo, in his search of a political vehicle to maintain influence after his presidency.
Mr Widodo has not commented on the latest speculation. But in April when reporters asked about the possibility of him leading Golkar and taking over PDI-P, he had laughed and said: “They said (I) want to take over Golkar? They said want to take over (PDI-P)? How come want to take over everything, don’t be like that. Don’t.”
Mr Ujang said to survive, the PDI-P must make compromises and political deals. “Politics cannot be separated from compromises, deals and negotiations,” he noted. 
Others say it is more important than ever that PDI-P helps uphold Indonesia’s democracy.
“These are all indicators that show that our democracy is backsliding, (that) we will return to the era before the Reformasi period in one or two steps,” said political analyst Ray Rangkuti of the Jakarta-based think tank Lingkar Madani.
What is happening in Golkar may not mean much to the average Indonesian, “but what we are seeing is the overall weakening of democracy”, he said.